Newly democratic Bhutan in a tight spot

Special to The Japan Times
January 21, 2008

MADRAS, India — Bhutan is now a democracy. Its transition from a monarchy to a democracy has been smooth. The tiny country, where Buddhism is the state religion, has been applauded by the world for changing with the times, and not waiting to be pushed like Pakistan, which has stubbornly refused to adopt democratic ideals despite enormous pressure from the United States.

Bhutan will have a multiparty system, and its enlightened king has already stepped aside to pave the way for his Oxford-educated son. This situation almost seems like cinema with the trappings of a modern-day fairy tale. But as in most fairy tales, there are witches and wicked men. The evil in the case of Bhutan is its geographical position. It lies nestled in the Himalayas, landlocked and sandwiched between two Asian giants, India and China, fiercely fighting for regional hegemony, world attention and superpower status.

With New Delhi and Beijing keenly eyeing Bhutan, it may become a strategic pawn. In any case, it has for years been treated as a mere buffer between India and China, especially when the two countries were enemies. Even today the two powers harbor a great deal of suspicion toward one another.

Recently the Wall Street Journal wrote that King Jigme Singye Wangchuk, "the Dragon King, who ascended the throne in 1972 at the age of 16, deserves to go down in history as his country's George Washington, John Adams and Thomas Jefferson."

As early as 1998, Wangchuk declared that Bhutan would become a constitutional monarchy. He surrendered many of his powers, and asked legal experts the study some of the best constitutions in the world. Based on these, a draft was written and mailed to every Bhutanese home.

In 2006, he stepped down and in 2007 the country's first general elections were held in all 20 districts. The nation is now preparing to vote in Parliament's lower house elections. It may not be long before the king becomes a ceremonial head of state, similar to the role played by the British monarchy.

It is believed that the outcome of the lower house elections will affect China and India. Bhutan has diplomatic relations with India, and actually uses India to stay in touch with the U.S. But it does not have ties with China.

Obviously, any negative development in Bhutan will adversely affect India, particularly because India's northeastern state of Arunachal, close to the Himalayan kingdom, is also claimed by China.

Arunachal has been a bone of contention between New Delhi and Beijing for many years. Even at the recent India-China meeting at Beijing Arunachal was not mentioned in the drafts.

Bhutan has been solidly behind India. The Perpetual Peace and Friendship Agreement signed by them in 1949 guides their ties. The treaty was put to test only in December 2003, when Thimpu helped New Delhi to flush out Indian militants operating inside Bhutan. The Bhutanese Army was of great help to the Indian Army.

Bhutanese feel comfortable with Indians and India, but not so with China. There is an inherent fear of the Chinese in Bhutan, and these fears are not without basis. There are border disputes between the two that go back to centuries. Worse, Bhutan had a great affinity for Tibet and the two traditionally had strong trade relations. This was disrupted in 1960 when a wave of Tibetan refugees landed in Bhutan, which then had to close down its northern borders to stop this incursion. Trade ground to a halt and has yet to resume.

In spite of a peace treaty between China and Bhutan, things have not been good. Chinese forces have tried to intrude into Bhutanese territory, and these incursions have taken place close to vulnerable Indian areas. One of them is the vital link, called the "chicken's neck," between mainland India and its northeastern regions. Arunachal is located in this area.

Obviously Beijing has designs for taking over Arunachal, and with India's army deployments concentrated on its border with Pakistan, China could have an easy run.

Bhutan is a convenient whipping boy in this game and it can be safely assumed that China wants to drag India into a conflict over Bhutan. Such a move would be aimed at clinching Arunachal.

Be that as it may, the coming elections in Bhutan will be crucial for India. The nation's loyalty to India will be put to test after the verdict is out.

B. Gautam writes for a leading Indian newspaper.

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